ミズヤマ ハジメ   MIZUYAMA Hajime
  水山 元
   所属   青山学院大学  理工学部 経営システム工学科
   職種   教授
言語種別 日本語
発行・発表の年月 2012
形態種別 学術雑誌
査読 査読有り
標題 完全な記述が困難な最短経路問題への予測市場を用いた集合知援用の解法アプローチ
執筆形態 単独
掲載誌名 人工知能学会論文誌
巻・号・頁 328-337頁
概要 Many operational decisions of a company or an organization can be captured as a combinatorial optimization problem and, when the problem is clearly defined and appropriately formulated, it can be handled by a decision maker with the help of a suitable computerized algorithm. However, in a practical situation, it is often the case that the information required for clearly defining the problem is not fully available for a single decision maker but is dispersed among multiple stakeholders. This makes the problematic situation ill-defined and difficult to be dealt with properly by the decision maker alone. Thus, this paper takes up an undefinable shortest path problem as an example and proposes a prediction market approach for collectively solving it with a team of stakeholders. The approach aggregates the dispersed information on the problematic situation from the stakeholders through the market mechanism. After modeling the ill-defined situation by a shortest path problem with uncertainties in arc lengths, the paper discusses how to design the prediction security and market institution for collectively resolving the situation. Then, it conducts laboratory experiments to investigate how the proposed approach actually works. It further discusses how to generalize the approach to the case where the topology of the network is also uncertain.