ミズヤマ ハジメ   MIZUYAMA Hajime
  水山 元
   所属   青山学院大学  理工学部 経営システム工学科
   職種   教授
言語種別 英語
発行・発表の年月 2010
形態種別 学術雑誌
査読 査読有り
標題 A Prediction Market Approach to Facilitating Consensus Building among Supply Chain Partners
執筆形態 共同
掲載誌名 E-Journal of Advanced Maintenance
巻・号・頁 pp.149-159
著者・共著者 T. Komatsu
概要 How to facilitate the process of consensus building among the partners in a supply chain is a crucial issue. As an example of such a problem, this paper takes up perceptual mapping and develops a prediction market system for collectively determining the location of an object on a two-dimensional perceptual map. It introduces a new type of prediction security called SAPS (Square Area Prediction Security) and extends a widely used market making algorithm LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) for handling SAPS in a batch updating environment. This system feeds the location of the object back to the participants as the price distribution of SAPS, which is determined by the number of SAPS sold so far in each square area, and allows them to modify it through transactions of SAPS. The paper further conducts laboratory experiments to see whether the proposed system can support a group of people to build consensus on a perceptual map. As a result, it is observed that the variance of their subjective evaluations on the location of a specified object is reduced through operating the system but that the evolving consensus is not always captured properly by the price distribution. What causes this problem and how to fix it are also discussed.